The Russian Federation’s actions taken against Ukraine in 2014 led to the launch of full-scale military aggression on February 24, 2022, posing an unprecedented threat to regional and global security since the end of the Cold War. The con-sequence of the conducted military operation is the threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and possible further Russian expansion towards the Baltic States and Poland.
In its warfare, the Russian Federation uses both military and non-military instruments, applying aggression below the border of gray zone warfare, part of which is hybrid warfare. Activities of this nature include negotiations, embargoes, intimidation, covert subversion, assassinations, among others. We have seen events of this nature, among others, in 2016, when the European Commission proposed to negotiate with Russia on behalf of the European Union member states on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, also in the event of a Russian embargo on food products from the European Union until December 31, 2020 as a response to the Union’s sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation for its actions related to the annexation of Crimea, in 2020, when false information was disseminated about the possible incursion Russian troops into Belarus with the aim of intimidating participants in protests against Alexander Lukashenko, and finally during attempts to physically exterminate enemies, as exemplified by the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal in 2018 and Alexei Navalny in 2020. It should be noted that the Russian Federation on the territory of Western countries is guided by different stra-tegic assumptions than in the countries of the so-called “near abroad,” which includes countries that were part of the USSR’s direct sphere of influence before 1989. Toward the Western community, the Kremlin uses cultural diplomacy, colporteur disinformation and propa-ganda, and interference in democratic elections.
Russia has long opposed efforts to integrate the countries of the Central and Eastern European region into Western institutions, particularly NATO and the European Union. The authorities of the Russian Fe-deration are taking further aggressive and expansive steps aimed directly at increasing their sphere of influence and testing the limits to which they can go without arousing a reaction from the West. The war over Ukraine should not be viewed in terms of a limited conflict. The ongoing war poses a threat not only to regional security, as Vladimir Putin has chosen to confront Western countries, nullifying long-standing efforts to establish a security system governed by inter-national agreements. By creating military and non-military threats, the Russian Federation has globalized the consequences of its warfare.
The Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine not only led to a deepening erosion of international security, but also caused a decline in confidence in international organizations. The lack of decisiveness of some of the most important international organizations, their controversial decisions in the context of Russian military actions in Ukraine,
as well as the Kremlin’s open disregard for international law may result in a further erosion of their credibility. From Ukraine’s point of view, international institutions, apart from the undisputed involvement of NATO and the EU, are unable to take effective action to stop Ro-Russian aggression.
This thesis is confirmed, among other things, by the lack of response to President Vo-lodymyr Zelensky’s repeated appeals to the UN, calling for the establishment of an international tribunal to try Russian crimes, demands to take away Russia’s veto power, or to reform the UN Security Council.Although the lack of an adequate response to the Kremlin’s aggression in 2014 did not take place on such a scale in 2022, nevertheless, bearing in mind historical experience, Ukraine is skeptical about the effectiveness of the actions of international organizations in providing security, which in the long run undermines the viability of the entire current international security architecture.
From a global perspective, the Russian Federation’s goal is to weaken Western countries and bring about a change in the regional and global security environment.
The Kremlin will take further actions that could result in the displacement of the US presence from Europe and the disintegration of international organizations, primarily NATO and the European Union. This goal is served by, among other things, escalating conflicts in the re-gion states of Central and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh) and on a global scale (Africa, the Middle East), or steering the growth of radicalization of public sentiment through, among other things, hybrid actions related to the influx of migrants to Europe.